RANKINGS
// 2022 · Accuracy vs the real board · expand a row for the full verdict
Trust is a 0–100 score vs that year’s actual Round 1 board. The headline read is trust plus exact picks (player and team at the slot). S–D tiers use fixed trust thresholds for that season (S is rare). Optional column sorts re-order rows only; tier badges still reflect that row’s trust score. Expand a card for the verdict; when we have a stable URL for that analyst’s final mock, you’ll see a source link there too. See methodology for cutoffs and weights.
1 Mel Kiper Jr. ESPN 26
Trust vs actual (0–100) 4/32 Exact to slot
ESPN+ final mock (opens in new tab)
Kiper had Walker–Hutchinson 1–2 right and a clean board with no projected trades — but the Texans at 3 (Ekwonu vs Stingley) and QB calls (Willis over Pickett at 20) cost exact hits in a defense-heavy, QB-late year. Solid structural read on the edge class; the late-first slotting was noisy like the rest of the market.
2 Daniel Jeremiah NFL Network 22
Trust vs actual (0–100) 5/32 Exact to slot
NFL.com mock 4.0 (opens in new tab)
Jeremiah’s 4.0 tracked the real board’s defensive tilt and had Pickett to Pittsburgh, but the NYJ–SEA trade shell and a duplicated Jameson Williams slot in the source transcript hurt cleanliness. Strong on edges and WR run timing; treat pick 29 as published duplicate noise when comparing to other mocks.
3 Todd McShay ESPN 19
Trust vs actual (0–100) 4/32 Exact to slot
ESPN+ final mock (opens in new tab)
McShay nailed several team–player pairings (Walker 1, Hutchinson 2, Stingley 3, London/Wilson cluster) but the projected DAL–HOU trade lane and QB ordering (Willis before Pickett) dragged exact hits. One projected first-round trade in the published mock — chaos penalty applied per methodology.
4 Trevor Sikkema PFF 12
Trust vs actual (0–100) 3/32 Exact to slot
PFF final mock (opens in new tab)
Sikkema’s final hit Walker–Hutchinson and several mid-board player IDs; Gardner-to-Houston at 3 mirrored buzz even though the Texans took Stingley. Two labeled Round 1 trades in the article — chaos penalty applied. Listed separately from generic “PFF team” mocks in other years (stable writer id: sikkema).
5 Chad Reuter NFL.com 3
Trust vs actual (0–100) 1/32 Exact to slot
NFL.com seven-round R1 (opens in new tab)
Reuter’s seven-round Round 1 (published Apr 22, 2022) was trade-heavy and QB-noisy relative to what happened April 28 — several swaps and passers that did not land that way. Source link is the free NFL.com Round 1 article; heavier chaos penalty than single-trade mocks. Useful as a snapshot of pre-draft scenario building, not the same “final week” timing as ESPN’s Apr 28 boards.