RANKINGS
// 2026 · Accuracy vs the real board · expand a row for the full verdict
Trust is a 0–100 score vs that year’s actual Round 1 board. The headline read is trust plus exact picks (player and team at the slot). S–D tiers use fixed trust thresholds for that season (S is rare). Optional column sorts re-order rows only; tier badges still reflect that row’s trust score. Expand a card for the verdict; when we have a stable URL for that analyst’s final mock, you’ll see a source link there too. See methodology for cutoffs and weights.
1 Todd McShay The Ringer 21
Trust vs actual (0–100) 4/32 Exact to slot
McShay Report final mock (opens in new tab)
McShay nailed the first two picks and had the right instinct that Ty Simpson could appear in Round 1, but he placed the quarterback much later than the Rams did. His trade-heavy top ten created some player hits while costing exact team-slot credit.
2 Daniel Jeremiah NFL Network 19
Trust vs actual (0–100) 3/32 Exact to slot
NFL.com final mock (opens in new tab)
Jeremiah published late enough to catch the board tightening. He nailed the first two slots, identified the Chiefs as a Mansoor Delane team, and had Ty Simpson in Round 1, though the real Rams landing spot came much earlier than his Cardinals trade-up projection.
3 Mel Kiper Jr. ESPN 16
Trust vs actual (0–100) 3/32 Exact to slot
ESPN final mock (opens in new tab)
Kiper had the cleanest top-two call and kept several eventual first-rounders near their real range. The misses came when the real board turned toward Tate at #4, the Chiefs trade-up for Delane, and Ty Simpson landing much earlier than his mock.
4 Dane Brugler The Athletic 14
Trust vs actual (0–100) 2/32 Exact to slot
Yahoo / Sporting News comparison (opens in new tab)
Brugler read the first-round player pool well, especially the middle of the board. His mock was hurt by Caleb Downs not going to the Giants, the Chiefs moving up for Delane, and several linemen landing with different teams than projected.